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Syrian Conflict Heating Up - What's Next?

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  • Syrian Conflict Heating Up - What's Next?

    On a day when the main item on the BBC was someone not announcing an Oscar winner correctly, something far more important "for whatever reason" escaped the notice of the press.

    After literally dozens of claims of the capture of Al Bab from ISIS by Turkish-lead forces since December and January, it finally really did happen and Al Bab was completely captured on the 26th of February from Islamic state.

    In the meantime, Syrian regime forces have also been fighting ISIS near Aleppo. Here's the situation as of the 27th of February 2017 at about 5pm GMT:



    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mid...6625D?rpc=401&

    What's been claimed many times by Turkey's President Erdogan is that Turkey "was going to conqueror Raqqah from ISIS".

    https://www.middleeastobserver.org/2...-next-targets/

    Problem is, the complete region between Turkey and ISIS is now closed off as you can see from the above map. So, the only way to "get to Raqqah" as Erdogan has promised time and time again is to either attack the Syrian army and its allies or to attack the Kurds.

    So, what is going to be the outcome of all this..

    Are the Turkish forces going to make good on the promises of their president and also attack the Kurds in Manbij and head to Raqqah?

    Are the Syrian and Turkish armies going to come into direct conflict given their present proximity to one another?

    If the Turks do attack Manbij as promised, are the Americans just going to sit their while their respective allies The SDF and the Turks slug it out?

    What if the Kurds capture Raqqah before the Turks even arrive. Will the Turks in that instance still continue to try to capture Raqqah, or might they go after Aleppo?

    The final question is about ISIS. Now that there is no longer any common border between ISIS and Turkish/Turkish-supported forces, is this the real end of ISIS since it would be now extremely difficult for them to get either manpower in or smuggled oil out given that there has been considerable rather implicit cooperation between ISIS and the Turks in spite of them having presently done battle in Northern Syria?


  • #2
    Thanks for your report, I pray for Syria and hope this awful war ends up as soon as possible. Here is a good source which offers alternative way of world development http://planetaryproject.com/planet_project/philosophy/ , based on humanism and nature-loving philosophy. Hope one day we are able to understand how important is to save our planet for our common future.

    Comment


    • #3
      What is clear is that turkey is totally committed to denying territorial continuity between Syrian kurds and Turkish kurds...Assad does not want Syrian Kurdish autonomous area and assad does not want to have to contend with possible joint aspirations of Iraqi and Syrian kurds...
      This leaves Russia in the middle between assad,,iran , and turkey...Not a good place to be...
      I think America should quietly begin arming Iranian kurds...

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
        On a day when the main item on the BBC was someone not announcing an Oscar winner correctly, something far more important "for whatever reason" escaped the notice of the press.

        After literally dozens of claims of the capture of Al Bab from ISIS by Turkish-lead forces since December and January, it finally really did happen and Al Bab was completely captured on the 26th of February from Islamic state.

        In the meantime, Syrian regime forces have also been fighting ISIS near Aleppo. Here's the situation as of the 27th of February 2017 at about 5pm GMT:



        http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mid...6625D?rpc=401&

        What's been claimed many times by Turkey's President Erdogan is that Turkey "was going to conqueror Raqqah from ISIS".

        https://www.middleeastobserver.org/2...-next-targets/

        Problem is, the complete region between Turkey and ISIS is now closed off as you can see from the above map. So, the only way to "get to Raqqah" as Erdogan has promised time and time again is to either attack the Syrian army and its allies or to attack the Kurds.

        So, what is going to be the outcome of all this..

        Are the Turkish forces going to make good on the promises of their president and also attack the Kurds in Manbij and head to Raqqah?

        Are the Syrian and Turkish armies going to come into direct conflict given their present proximity to one another?

        If the Turks do attack Manbij as promised, are the Americans just going to sit their while their respective allies The SDF and the Turks slug it out?

        What if the Kurds capture Raqqah before the Turks even arrive. Will the Turks in that instance still continue to try to capture Raqqah, or might they go after Aleppo?

        The final question is about ISIS. Now that there is no longer any common border between ISIS and Turkish/Turkish-supported forces, is this the real end of ISIS since it would be now extremely difficult for them to get either manpower in or smuggled oil out given that there has been considerable rather implicit cooperation between ISIS and the Turks in spite of them having presently done battle in Northern Syria?

        given syrian regime is backed by russia they'll likely avoid them so kurds would be a more likely target
        Why is it called a tourist season if we're not supposed to hunt them?

        Comment


        • #5
          Next is Assad will get his ass kicked Either West or Turkey will kick it.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by grgur View Post
            given syrian regime is backed by russia they'll likely avoid them so kurds would be a more likely target
            Since I had OPed the topic, during its "dormant" stage, a lot has been happening on the ground:

            https://syria.liveuamap.com/?zoom=9&...49633789062501

            The most important feature is that there is now a buffer zone between the Kurdish forces and Turkish/Syrian rebels - this is manned by both Russians and Syrian Army. The Russians and the Syrians seem to be much more actively allied with the YPG/Kurds.

            In the North of the western Kurdish region across the Euphrates where the Russians/Syrians are not located, you have a significant presence. So, if the Turks want to go after the Kurds in Manbij, they have to either go through US forces or Russian/Syrian and hence risk a conflict with states that can do significant damage.

            So, for the Turks to move in on Manbij - like they have continually promising - then they either directly confront militarily the US or the Russians, something that Turkish forces might not be up to.

            In short, the US/Russians/Syrian army are making it much harder for the Turkish Army to attack the Kurds - in effect they are preventing Turkey from moving in on the Kurds... the reason I think is that it is in everyone's strategic interest to put a Kurdish buffer between Turkey and the rest of the Arab world.

            Furthermore, the Turkish military forces seem to be in some disarray and unorganised after the coup attempt of July 2016 and the subsequent Stalinist-like purge of the military's officers:

            https://belluminexpertis.wordpress.c...e-bashibozouk/

            I suspect this is also ultimately what is driving a lot of Erdogan's recent political moves.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Elishar View Post
              What is clear is that turkey is totally committed to denying territorial continuity between Syrian kurds and Turkish kurds...
              And Turkey gambled very badly and lost. I suspect that Erdogan had the idea of using ISIS as a means of piercing Syria/iraq then walking in afterwards under the cover of chaos after everyone had fought with ISIS and everyone was exhausted.

              Problem is, Turkey got bogged down very badly.

              With ISIS now physically separated complete from Turkey, it now becomes just a matter of time before ISIS are defeated. Turkey however is still bogged down in Syria and Erdogan is left not able to fulfill promises to conquer places like Manbij, Aleppo or even Mosul and Erbil in Iraq.

              Originally posted by Elishar View Post
              Assad does not want Syrian Kurdish autonomous area and assad does not want to have to contend with possible joint aspirations of Iraqi and Syrian kurds...
              I suspect that this is the ultimate price that Assad is going to pay for all that Russian "help". It is ultimately in Russia's strategic interest not to be dealing with an expansionist Turkey/Iran/Arab entity and a Kurdish state would neutralise all three in that regard.

              As you can see, the Kurdish regions form an effective buffer between Turkey and Syria/Iraq:



              The only real part not covered is the bit of the Syrian-Turkish border near the sea... that's highly mountainous and difficult to invade.

              Originally posted by Elishar View Post
              This leaves Russia in the middle between assad,,iran , and turkey...Not a good place to be...
              Or a Kurdish buffer state between the three - neutralising the expansionist aspirations of all three.

              The question of the expansionist aspirations of a new Kurdish state then becomes a different one.

              Originally posted by Elishar View Post
              I think America should quietly begin arming Iranian kurds...
              I don't think the US would need to....

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Zirelelil View Post
                Next is Assad will get his ass kicked Either West or Turkey will kick it.
                Actually, Russai is kickking West" ass in Syria by ruining their plan of invading this county by sponsoring their ISIS...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Dref View Post
                  Actually, Russai is kickking West" ass in Syria by ruining their plan of invading this county by sponsoring their ISIS...
                  Only in your colorful imagination, babe Russia plays around as long as West ALLOWS it doing that. But Great NATO can bomb Assad's troops at any moment and Russia won't be able to do anything with that, just hue and cry in Security Councile like a whipped hoe, lol

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Dref View Post
                    Actually, Russai is kickking West" ass in Syria by ruining their plan of invading this county by sponsoring their ISIS...
                    Gorgi porgi pudding and pie,,kissed the girls and made them cry,,when the Boys came out to play ,gorgi porgi ran away...
                    The Russia naval base is in Syria,,ergo Russia needs a secure Controllable syrian government over and around its base..At the moment Russia is in the process of building alliances which will ennable it to keep the base,russia has no interest in additional territories,it will ennable assad to get and keep what he can....

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      As ISIS loose more and more territory, have just about lost Mosul and Raqqa is just about under siege, expect more attacks like the one that has just happened in London:

                      http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-39355505

                      This is a standard Islamic response to being defeated - terrorism to try and negotiate a better position. Muhammad started the trend in that regard.

                      Expect rebranded Al Qaeda in Syria to also pull the same tricks if they get completely defeated.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Reinstall Assad, reclaim Ukraine in exchange, destroy ISIS and introduce an international commemoration day to the victims of islam.
                        Last edited by aimeisan; 03-22-2017, 09:03 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by aimeisan View Post
                          Reinstall Assad
                          No way. Assad must by removed by any means.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Zirelelil View Post
                            No way. Assad must by removed by any means.
                            The very first and obvious question is: "Who are you going to replace Assad with?".

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
                              The very first and obvious question is: "Who are you going to replace Assad with?".
                              moderate opposition

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