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  • Crash of the Turkish Economy

    The Turkish Lira has crashed to by far its lowest historical level. Today, I saw the Turkish Lira was well below the psychologically dangerous level of 4TL to 1 $US.

    https://anfenglish.com/news/turkish-...d-dollar-25800

    This is symptomatic of the perilous situation that the Turkish economy finds itself in. Turkey has all the makings of being the next Venezuela - high inflation, scatterbrained Islamofascist dictator, grandiose construction projects and the burning of money on uneducated populations to shore up popular support.. plus a NeoNazi grouping with huge representation in the Turkish parliament which the Turkish president relies on to rubber-stamp legislation.

    Do you think Turkey's economy will crash and burn? When will this happen?

    Do you think tactics such as Turkish parliamentarians investigating "Islamophobia" and other such nonsense is merely a case of diversionary tactics to take the focus away from the Turkish economy's really dreadful state?

    Economic collapse usually leads to massive political problems and even civil war when you have the explosive mix that exists such as we see in Turkey between different competing groups.

    What are the chances of eventually a civil war engulfing Turkey - which groups would likely be the participants of such a civil war? Would such a civil be even far worse than the conflict we see in Syria presently?







  • #2
    Are we seeing the resurgence of the "sick man of Europe " syndrome ??

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Elishar View Post
      Are we seeing the resurgence of the "sick man of Europe " syndrome ??
      Yes, the Ottoman Empire is following a rather similar trajectory to that of the Byzantine Empire.

      Ataturk manage to save the rump that remained, but Erdogan has been doing his best to make Turkey's Ottoman history identical to the Byzantine one.

      Comment


      • #4

        Do you think Turkey's economy will crash and burn? When will this happen?

        maybe... None is willing to invest into a country with a crazy despot who could suddenly got an idea to confiscate investor's assets for his wars. The next problem for investors is that insane sultan tries to create political pressure on EU and US, which are the biggest and richest consume markets. Possible economic sanctions as reaction to Erdogan's threats, exclusion of those high profitable markets could break Turkish economy's neck.

        Do you think tactics such as Turkish parliamentarians investigating "Islamophobia" and other such nonsense is merely a case of diversionary tactics to take the focus away from the Turkish economy's really dreadful state?

        This the political pressure I mentioned above. Erdongan's attempt to destabilize particular countries with significant industry and capital, while he instigates to violence of Turkish minorities living abroad, will earlier or later result in counter reactions like an embargo.

        What are the chances of eventually a civil war engulfing Turkey - which groups would likely be the participants of such a civil war? Would such a civil be even far worse than the conflict we see in Syria presently?

        The west has financial and milliary resources to start a quick regime change in Turkey, dissidents of opposition are already there. The question is when ends Sultan's job as useful idiot. Regime change can happen without a civil war, such a conflict like in Syria is a proxy war with different reasons than only a regime change.
        Nevertheless turkey could be a fertile ground for a proxy war with current extent of radicalization and its minorities which crave for autonomy since decades.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Elishar View Post
          Are we seeing the resurgence of the "sick man of Europe " syndrome ??
          Rather unlikely. Behind the 'sick man of Europe' stood big military industry complex, they thought in this time that war is the mother of progress and war is always a big business. Those people which supported the man didn't seen the development of weapon technology what leaded to destruction of their 'heart land' and their production sites. This resulted in big reduction of their so beloved shekels.

          Erdogan is a wood grouse cock in courtship dance with more ambitions than possibilities.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Hades91 View Post

            Rather unlikely. Behind the 'sick man of Europe' stood big military industry complex, they thought in this time that war is the mother of progress and war is always a big business. Those people which supported the man didn't seen the development of weapon technology what leaded to destruction of their 'heart land' and their production sites. This resulted in big reduction of their so beloved shekels.

            Erdogan is a wood grouse cock in courtship dance with more ambitions than possibilities.
            Behind the 'sick man of europe' stood big military industrial complex,,military yes , industrial no,, " the man didn't seen the development of weapons technology"..THIS is correct and turkey just wasn't THERE when it was happening everywhere else...The last great battle against the turkeys in the M E was fought on horseback on the plains of meggiddo and the brits and the Anzacs BUSTED turkey ASS...However,,,there was more to come,from somewhere or other the Australians produced man made machines which could fly in the sky like djinns,most of the turkey soldiers didn't know about aeroplanes,,had never Heard of them and were simply terrified by the sight of them and they RAN like desert hares...

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
              maybe... None is willing to invest into a country with a crazy despot who could suddenly got an idea to confiscate investor's assets for his wars. The next problem for investors is that insane sultan tries to create political pressure on EU and US, which are the biggest and richest consume markets. Possible economic sanctions as reaction to Erdogan's threats, exclusion of those high profitable markets could break Turkish economy's neck.
              The Turkish economy really is insane right now and particularly how it is being managed. Erdogan's fake degree in economics shows itself up presently:

              https://www.linktank.com/publication...l-illegitimacy

              In short, the Turkish government have set themselves up without anyone's "help" for a huge economic failure of Venezuelan proportions:

              https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...record-er-lows

              Everyone just has to sit back and let Erdogan continue to shoot himself in the foot.

              A very interesting one missing from the commentary from what I've seen is the Turkish-Saudi relationship - a lot of money "unofficially" was pumped by the Saudis into the Turkish economy. Now Saudi Arabia and Turkey are not the best of Islamic brotherly friends anymore. Also Saudi Arabia is suffering something of a depletion of foreign cash reserves itself. I wonder how much money is leaving Turkey in suitcases right now

              Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
              This the political pressure I mentioned above. Erdongan's attempt to destabilize particular countries with significant industry and capital, while he instigates to violence of Turkish minorities living abroad, will earlier or later result in counter reactions like an embargo.
              Behaving like that doesn't endear you to other nations - especially those who are supposed to be your allies.

              Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
              The west has financial and milliary resources to start a quick regime change in Turkey, dissidents of opposition are already there. The question is when ends Sultan's job as useful idiot. Regime change can happen without a civil war, such a conflict like in Syria is a proxy war with different reasons than only a regime change.
              I suspect that the internal situation in Turkey is not so easily influenced by "outside forces", except for perhaps capital flows into the country.

              Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
              Nevertheless turkey could be a fertile ground for a proxy war with current extent of radicalization and its minorities which crave for autonomy since decades.
              There are so many factions present in Turkey that for sure anyone wanting to have a proxy conflict can find someone to arm up.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
                Rather unlikely. Behind the 'sick man of Europe' stood big military industry complex,
                Not exactly. On the way to the bottom, The Ottomans stalled their eventual demise with the single biggest strategic talent that Islamists and Islam has - the ability to social engineer. The Ottomans were absolute masters of playing off competing powers against each other and this enabled them to play "poor man" without getting completely dissected and chewed up in the 19th century.

                Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
                they thought in this time that war is the mother of progress and war is always a big business. Those people which supported the man didn't seen the development of weapon technology what leaded to destruction of their 'heart land' and their production sites. This resulted in big reduction of their so beloved shekels.
                I don't understand what you are trying to say here...

                Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
                Erdogan is a wood grouse cock in courtship dance with more ambitions than possibilities.
                Erdogan believes his own bullshit. Master social engineers themselves fall into the trap of ultimately believing their own crap. I'm sure that Putin has very much read his man very well and is pulling the strings on him like in an abusive relationship.

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                • #9
                  Putin does not use Erdogan. Putin and Erdogan are businessmans because the EU is pursuing a destructive policy. If any of us find ourselves on a desert island with Lauri, we will be friends with him, because we will be bored alone.
                  Last edited by VaselineBasket; 04-12-2018, 05:56 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by VaselineBasket View Post
                    Putin does not use Erdogan. Putin and Erdogan are businessmans because the EU is pursuing a destructive policy. If any of us find ourselves on a desert island with Lauri, we will be friends with him, because we will be bored alone.
                    Turkey shoots down Russian jet, Russia lays on lots of economic sanctions on Turkey which cost Turkey dearly in terms of tourists from Russia and access to Russian markets, Erdogan engaging now in "bromance" with Putin and seems to be doing very much his bidding.

                    Conclusion: Putin owns Erdogan's ass.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Conclusion putin owns erdogans' ass... Yes , but , putin is allowing Erdogan to put down kurds in a corridor which iran wants to extend its reach through Syria..Is putin being influenced by his own experiences in Chechnya ?
                      Iran wants a land corridor " controlled by iran " to the med,,turkey wants control of the kurds including those in Syria,,,ergo Erdogan wants a piece of Syria DANGEROUSLY close to Russian ASSETS in Syria and iran wants the same basic area..You cannot run with both the hares AND the hounds at the same time...Putin is going to have to choose,but he is thinking iran ///or turkey,,how about in the end he think sunni //or shia ??

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Elishar View Post
                        Conclusion putin owns erdogans' ass... Yes , but , putin is allowing Erdogan to put down kurds in a corridor which iran wants to extend its reach through Syria..Is putin being influenced by his own experiences in Chechnya ?
                        Iran wants a land corridor " controlled by iran " to the med,,turkey wants control of the kurds including those in Syria,,,ergo Erdogan wants a piece of Syria DANGEROUSLY close to Russian ASSETS in Syria and iran wants the same basic area..You cannot run with both the hares AND the hounds at the same time...Putin is going to have to choose,but he is thinking iran ///or turkey,,how about in the end he think sunni //or shia ??
                        I think, that the answer is obvious. Russia supports Shia Muslims because they fight against radical Islam in sunism, but Russia supports Sunita Muslims because they are the foundation of Islam in Russia.

                        Russia chooses all Muslims, which do not cut the heads of other people and which do not rape women in Cologne.
                        Last edited by VaselineBasket; 04-12-2018, 07:14 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Elishar View Post
                          Conclusion putin owns erdogans' ass...
                          And Iran completes the menage-a-trois here.

                          Originally posted by Elishar View Post
                          Yes , but , putin is allowing Erdogan to put down kurds in a corridor which iran wants to extend its reach through Syria..Is putin being influenced by his own experiences in Chechnya ?
                          Erdogan has been allowed by Putin to go into Afrin... Putin wants Erdogan to be bogged down in an endless conflict. The Kurds are already attacking the Turks occupying there on a regular basis.

                          Also something missed by 98% of journalists - the Islamists being repatriated/bussed out of Eastern Gouta and being sent to the Al Bab enclave that Turkey already controls are from factions that oppose Turkey's Islamist "allies" there. A few thousand more Islamists of opposing factions for Turkey to have fun with there.

                          Originally posted by Elishar View Post
                          Iran wants a land corridor " controlled by iran " to the med,,turkey wants control of the kurds including those in Syria,,,ergo Erdogan wants a piece of Syria DANGEROUSLY close to Russian ASSETS in Syria and iran wants the same basic area..You cannot run with both the hares AND the hounds at the same time...Putin is going to have to choose,but he is thinking iran ///or turkey,,how about in the end he think sunni //or shia ??
                          I think Russia wants a buffer Kurdish state between Turkey and Syria not controlled by Iran. In the meantime, they let the Kurds and the Turks weaken each other so that the Russians "just in time" come to help the Kurds.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
                            I think Russia wants a buffer Kurdish state between Turkey and Syria not controlled by Iran. In the meantime, they let the Kurds and the Turks weaken each other so that the Russians "just in time" come to help the Kurds.
                            Islam Sunni is the second largest religion in Russia. Therefore, any radical Islamists are the enemies of Russia, because they distabilize the situation in the Middle East at the start and then in Russia.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by VaselineBasket View Post
                              Islam Sunni is the second largest religion in Russia. Therefore, any radical Islamists are the enemies of Russia, because they distabilize the situation in the Middle East at the start and then in Russia.
                              In the meantime, different groups of extremist Sunnis get to kill each other en masse... and the Kurds get to kill quite a few before Russia "allows" an independent state.

                              Comment

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