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  • aussieinbg
    replied
    They're now very openly talking about Turkey defaulting on their sovereign debt aka Venezuela:

    The $850 billion economy’s potential needs are huge. Were Turkey to descend into a full-blown crisis where it was shut out of international borrowing markets, analysts estimate Ankara would have to find between $40 billion and $90 billion to avoid some kind of sovereign default.
    For many economists, this is a textbook emerging market currency crisis.
    Years of foreign debt accumulation and rising balance of payments gaps meet a sudden evaporation of domestic and investor confidence that sends the currency sliding, inflation soaring and forces central bank interest rates higher to control it.
    The interest rate and currency shocks in turn trigger a deep recession and problems in the banking system as firms and households struggle to pay back their loans — making high interest rates unsustainable and leaving the currency vulnerable to further weakness.
    If foreign investment grinds to a halt and hard cash buffers disappear, Turkey has only limited options without simply building large current account surpluses that may require a much deeper and longer domestic recession.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1SR1XL

    Now, Turkey's hard cash buffers have just about run out and Erdogan has completely burnt his bridges with the IMF - so no bailout from there. I can't see where Erdogan and his cronies are going to pull 10's of billions of dollars to save Turkey turning into Venezuela at short notice....

    Here's a nice picture showing where the lira is ultimately heading:



    Now, the banking system most exposed to Turkish debt in Europe is Spain's:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/230520...pigs-analysis/

    If I had money in a Spanish bank, I'd be putting it elsewhere...

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Turkish economy is very well with over 0.6% growth
    0.6% growth for a country where the population is growing like Turkey means that people are getting poorer. Given the lies and deception being stated by Turkey's economic institutions, then the real rate of growth is likely negative.

    In any case, that 0.6% figure is highly fudged - you had the inflated bullshit earlier in 2018 added to the massive drop so far of 3% or so with the worst yet to come....

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    despite all economical attacks and secret sanctions which will be prevented in next years by full-performance working of New Istanbul Airport, new Organized Industrial Towns, Aircraft Carrier Building shipyard, domestical productions etc. projects,
    All these economic "assets" aren't making any money at all and got bought with debt which has to be paid back with huge interest because of Turkey's crap credit rating.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    btw what about yellowvestwarşaiş European, American and Australian extremely debted economies?
    There is a problem with debt in western economies - and politicians are made aware of it by protests. So what happened to the Gezi Park demonstrators?

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    ->100%debth = collapse
    The level of debt is higher than it should be but sustainable unlike Turkey's.
    [QUOTE=CaymanWolvon;n3091720]
    Dollar 7TL = October 2018 U.S stock market crash, loose of 2 trillion$$$ just in a few days, because unlike Turkiye, some countries of which currency aren't much valuable like ASEAN, African, South American countries couldn't buy Apple brand products, as people still could buy apple products in Turkiye, they're no longer preferring it since boicot by [.quote]

    $2 trillion lost on a poor day's trading on Wall Street, and soon after recovered, = over 2 years worth of GDP for Turkey, Learn your place!

    Turkey's Central bank only has about $10 billion left - not enough to cover 3 months of imports for Turkey. That's not even 10% of the personal wealth of Jeff Besos at about $150 billion.

    The only way that Turkey can keep the lira from completely collapsing is for their financial institutes to squander their remaining foreign currency reserves under the dictatorial direction of Erdogan. Yesterday, they squandered $1 billion probably to hold off the collapse of the lira for about 2 or 3 days:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/turk...K?rpc=401&

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    ERDOĞAN THE GREAT

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    You know things are just about to go off the cliff when an ex high-ranked IML official begins to discuss openly the very poor prospects of Turkey's economy not using "nice" language :

    If you ever wanted to learn how to not handle a currency crisis, you should observe the way President Recep Erdogan is mismanaging the Turkish lira. This mishandling substantially heightens the likelihood that Turkey will soon default on its external debt mountain. That in turn could cast a dark cloud over the rest of the emerging market economies’ prospects as well as over those European — especially Spanish — banks with high Turkish debt exposure.
    That Turkey is in the grips of a vicious currency crisis can be in little doubt. Indeed, after Argentina, the country has the dubious distinction of having the world’s second-worst performing currency.
    After plunging by some 30 percent in 2018, the currency has lost a further 14 percent in value in 2019 and is showing no signs of stabilizing.
    At the heart of the swooning Turkish lira has been the loss of domestic and foreign investor confidence in the Turkish government’s ability and willingness to correct the large economic imbalances built up by years of overly easy monetary and fiscal policies.
    In this regard, it has hardly helped investor confidence that inflation has been allowed to rise to 20 percent or to four times the Turkish central banks’ official inflation target. Nor has it helped that President Erdogan has leant heavily on the central bank to refrain from raising interest rates to stem the currency’s slide and to curb inflation.
    The he continues later on:

    Turkey's exceedingly high level of short-term external debt and the fact that its corporate sector has borrowed excessively in U.S. dollars make its crisis that much more dangerous to its economic health.
    It is estimated that over the next year, Turkey has as much $180 billion in external debt service payments to make at a time that its international reserves have already dwindled to around three months of import payment.
    It is also estimated that its corporate sector has borrowed as much as $300 billion in U.S. dollar terms, whose servicing burden becomes all the more onerous as the currency falls and the economy contracts.
    It's regrettable that President Erdogan is showing no sign of urgency in addressing the currency crisis and is in fact adding to political uncertainty by forcing a rerun of the Istanbul local election. This risks having the currency succumb to another round of its vicious cycle.
    A weakening currency could very well lead to corporate bankruptcies that further erode investor confidence that leads to a further currency weakness. That in turn could add to further political instability, which would be yet another factor contributing to currency weakness and to a draining of investor confidence.
    and finally:

    One has to hope that President Erdogan soon recognizes that, once lost, investor confidence is difficult to restore. That might induce him to do something radical like call in the International Monetary Fund for help or fire his minister of Finance to show that he has become serious about breaking the downward economic spiral.
    If he does not do that the rest of the emerging market economies and the Spanish banking system should brace themselves for economic shock waves coming from a Turkish debt default.
    https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...urrency-crisis

    Erdogan is very unlikely to call in the IMF given his previous statements about and his pseudo-intellectual Islamist ideas about economics - a root cause of Turkey's economic problems in any case. He's not going to fire his daughter's husband from the role of finance minister either - not matter how useless he is.

    As for increasing interest rates - one of the first things to do in such a crisis to steady things... he has already excluded doing that and especially with rerunning the Istanbul election he can't politically. The lira today has so far fallen to 6.24 to $1 US. If the lira continues that rate of fall without intervention from the Turkish Central Bank, then expect the lira to be past 8 to $1US soon.

    Now, at what level presently would the $US to lira send Turkey bankrupt? Last year when Turkey was in much better economic shape than it is now, that was 7.2 to 1. I'd expect it to be much lower presently.


    Even the fanboy CaymanWolvon has gone very quiet lately on the thread and no more "economic wonder weapon" posts from him. Wonder why?

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    From western perspective is Erdogan the correct leader in Turkey. For regime change it's still too early, Turkish economy has to reach the bottom. It remembers me on the Third Reich, where allies stopped all assassination attempts on Hitler because completely destruction of Nazi-Germany's infrastructure was more beneficial than Germany's capitulation. Days of Hitler were already counted in this moment.
    I'm sure that's also why Russia wants Erdogan in as leader of Turkey - the cost to Turkey of having Erdogan as leader is the equivalent of Russia spending perhaps $100 billion having a war with Turkey.

    Still, this strategy might spiral out of control for Russia if they get into a civil war with each other and strategic nastiness creeps in such as the Bosphorus getting cut occurs.

    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    Hence I wish that AKP wins the Istanbul re-election. A dubious "friend" isn't better than an obvious enemy. LOL
    Erdogan is of course going to win the rerun election. They have already been laying the ground for a rerun with police going around asking people "who they voted for" and so on.

    I'm still wondering how much money the central bank there really has left. Once the central bank is bankrupted, what's next?

    At a bare minimum the IMF will demand that Erdogan step down and that the finance ministry is handed over to them in order for them to "assist" Turkey. So far, Turkey has managed to piss off the IMF more than any other country in history with their arrogance - and these people tend to remember such insults.

    More than likely however is that Erdogan will try to cling onto power and send Turkey even further down the shithole with bankruptcy, debt default and beyond. I'm not sure your theories about powerplay would work with Turkey engaged in a fulll-on civil war and not just the one with the Kurds out East.

    Cutting the Bosphorus with a number of sides at each other's throats Sarajevo x 100 style in the middle of a civil war is not a great strategic outcome for the West or for Russia for that matter.

    In the meantime, expect an upsurge in things such as whining about "islamophobia" and the like over the next couple of weeks from Turkey to cover up the fact that their economy is in a shithole and sinking further...

    Leave a comment:


  • Hades91x
    replied
    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post

    It was very clear from the start that there would be an electoral rerun given how close the result was and what was at state for Erdogan if he had lost Istanbul. I never would have imagined in a million years how someone like that kook Brenton Tarrant could have influenced geopolitical events by helping Erdogan to get enough voters off their arses in butthurt to vote and bring things close enough for them to play tricks with their electoral commission to "legitimately" rerun the election. Erdogan still has to for now play the pretend "democrat" game like he has been doing for the last 2 decades.

    I'm wondering where Erdogan is going to get the money he needs to yet again bribe voters. My guestimate is that they had burnt through about $15-20 billion in bribes and sweetener pork barrelling during the elections. Turkey's central bank only has in reality $10-15 billion left right now - and this is ignoring the likelihood of using other dodgy accounting tricks such as the ones uncovered by the Financial Times recently and which are still yet to be discovered. The likely reality is that they have less than $10 billion at this point.

    All of this couldn't have come at a worse time for Turkey. The lira is in full collapse on the markets right now. It's about 6.16 to $1 US and temporarily holding - my bet is that the central bank is again intervening in the markets and burning even more of their reserves just like they had burnt about 1/2 a billion to hold the lira at about 6 a couple of days ago for just one or two days.

    Given the renewed "electoral needs" of Erdogan combined with the necessity of defending the lira in rearguard actions to prevent it from immediately collapsing to 20 to $1 or even worse - not to mention debt refinancing which is on-going - then I can't see how things can hold up for much longer.

    Erdogan's harder than usual headbanging in mosque for more thawab during Ramadan combined with fasting is going to further exacerbate the situation there. His already piss-poor decision making skills regarding the economy are going to deteriorate further. My bet is that he's heading deeper into the "Hitler's wonder weapons are going to win Germany the war" thinking mode about the economy in Turkey. He's also going to be looking more and more to "miracles during Ramadan" crap.

    One thing about Ramadan is however in Erdogan's favour and not mentioned by any "expert" commentator thus far from what I can see. Erdogan has a whole period of extra mosque attendance during Ramadan to get the message through to his ummah to vote in the rerun election. This for sure influenced the "timing" of the election board's announcement.

    From western perspective is Erdogan the correct leader in Turkey. For regime change it's still too early, Turkish economy has to reach the bottom. It remembers me on the Third Reich, where allies stopped all assassination attempts on Hitler because completely destruction of Nazi-Germany's infrastructure was more beneficial than Germany's capitulation. Days of Hitler were already counted in this moment.

    Hence I wish that AKP wins the Istanbul re-election. A dubious "friend" isn't better than an obvious enemy. LOL

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    Great democrat Erdodog will start new Mayor election in Istanbul because his AKP lost there to opposition. How democratic XD

    It seems Erdodog learned from EU, "make election so often until you get the result that you want" LOL

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/w...-election.html
    It was very clear from the start that there would be an electoral rerun given how close the result was and what was at state for Erdogan if he had lost Istanbul. I never would have imagined in a million years how someone like that kook Brenton Tarrant could have influenced geopolitical events by helping Erdogan to get enough voters off their arses in butthurt to vote and bring things close enough for them to play tricks with their electoral commission to "legitimately" rerun the election. Erdogan still has to for now play the pretend "democrat" game like he has been doing for the last 2 decades.

    I'm wondering where Erdogan is going to get the money he needs to yet again bribe voters. My guestimate is that they had burnt through about $15-20 billion in bribes and sweetener pork barrelling during the elections. Turkey's central bank only has in reality $10-15 billion left right now - and this is ignoring the likelihood of using other dodgy accounting tricks such as the ones uncovered by the Financial Times recently and which are still yet to be discovered. The likely reality is that they have less than $10 billion at this point.

    All of this couldn't have come at a worse time for Turkey. The lira is in full collapse on the markets right now. It's about 6.16 to $1 US and temporarily holding - my bet is that the central bank is again intervening in the markets and burning even more of their reserves just like they had burnt about 1/2 a billion to hold the lira at about 6 a couple of days ago for just one or two days.

    Given the renewed "electoral needs" of Erdogan combined with the necessity of defending the lira in rearguard actions to prevent it from immediately collapsing to 20 to $1 or even worse - not to mention debt refinancing which is on-going - then I can't see how things can hold up for much longer.

    Erdogan's harder than usual headbanging in mosque for more thawab during Ramadan combined with fasting is going to further exacerbate the situation there. His already piss-poor decision making skills regarding the economy are going to deteriorate further. My bet is that he's heading deeper into the "Hitler's wonder weapons are going to win Germany the war" thinking mode about the economy in Turkey. He's also going to be looking more and more to "miracles during Ramadan" crap.

    One thing about Ramadan is however in Erdogan's favour and not mentioned by any "expert" commentator thus far from what I can see. Erdogan has a whole period of extra mosque attendance during Ramadan to get the message through to his ummah to vote in the rerun election. This for sure influenced the "timing" of the election board's announcement.

    Leave a comment:


  • Hades91x
    replied
    Great democrat Erdodog will start new Mayor election in Istanbul because his AKP lost there to opposition. How democratic XD

    It seems Erdodog learned from EU, "make election so often until you get the result that you want" LOL

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/w...-election.html

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    USA external debts in 2015: 97%
    USA external debts in 2017: 115%
    France, external debts: 213% = new greece(economical collapse, minimum wage fall), yellow vest protests
    United Kingdom, external debts: 313% = new greece(economical collapse, minimum wage fall), yellow vest protests, environmentalist protests(not really related to envrioment, they're just stressful for bad economical conditions )
    While these places have higher overall debts, they have the ability with real economic activity to repay their debts.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Turkiye, external debts: 53%, not a new greece(no yellow vest protests, minimum wage is RISING), investments and projects are continuing as well as new Istanbul airport is now fully active which will generate 4.9% more to Turkish GDP growth rate.
    New Industrial towns and serial productions of domestic industrial products are about to began which will generate another over 5% to Turkish GDP growth rate.
    Even if Turkey's external debts were 10%, irrelevant the number if they are unable to pay back their debts. Turkey is just about bankrupt.

    When Turkey will hit rock bottom or even worse is only a question of time now.

    With the news that Erdogan's cronies in the electoral commission are allowing the Istanbul elections to be reheld, that time gets brought forward - another few billion from the Turkish Central Bank's reserves to porkbarrel the voters yet again should just about send Turkey completely bankrupt,

    The remaining question is whether the IMF will give Turkey an ass-raping or whether Turkey will descend into a hell just like Venezuela's. We need to keep an eye out for what assets Erdogan is shipping out of the country to see where things are heading

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    This might be the straw that breaks the camel's back for Turkey.

    Someone has stuffed up very very badly in Turkey regarding taking into account the sanctions waver program regarding importing Iranian oil into Turkey:

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...s-On-Iran.html

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1S80WT

    So, where is Turkey suddenly going to acquire 12% of its oil needs overnight?

    They already knew 6 months before that Turkey was going to need to acquire new sources of petroleum - now Turkey is going to have to pay huge premiums on it on the world market. Smart, very very smart of them

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Bullshit table of figures which show gross rather than nett foreign debt - nonsense already refuted a long time ago but this poster continues to spam it.
    Yes, that poster is trying to pile more bullshit on top of more bullshit.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Sure you lazy GAY ANSUCK, first pay your 126% external debts before even trying to criticize which you always miss the reality
    Read the OP again little boy.

    Hint: The OP is about Turkey's economy, not Australia's.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    U.S. stocks close lower as Turkey, trade worries continue to weigh

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...cus-2018-08-15
    October was a horrible month for stocks
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/31/i...ber/index.html
    The only place where Turkey can have any real impact on the world economic stage - by turning billions of dollars worth of investment into shit and its flow-on effects on the world's markets.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Statistics which this poster continually refuses to give the sources for "for whatever reason" - yet continues to spam.
    Most likely based on dodgy rubbery crap from the Turkish government which we know is unreliable, We also know previously that huge numbers of Turkish workers are earning well below the official minimum wage anyway. Rule of law in Turkey being non-existent simply isn't just a case of journalists and others being thrown into prison - it extends to workers' rights.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    According to aussie ansuck, Turkiye must pay $115 billion till end of this year while Turkiye has got $139 billion foreign currency reserves(Euro-USD)
    That's according to some very dodgy accounting those "$139 billion" - The Turkish Central Bank already got caught out on padding the reserve numbers with dodgy short term swap loans and there are for sure many other tricks because the Turkish Central Bank has not been transparent with the international financial community with its accounting unlike just about every other such financial institute in the world.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Turkiye foreign exchange reserves:

    You're giving the gross reserves and not the reserves minus liabilities.

    Here's one way Turkey is bullshitting its financial situation at the moment - with short term loans which on the balance sheet look like assets but are in fact liabilities:



    From the 26th of April:

    Friday’s report marks the first time the central bank has published aggregate figures for the value of active swaps for March. FT calculations indicate that the rate of borrowing picked up further this month, reaching a high of $12.8bn. Stripping these swaps out, the central bank is left with $14.9bn in net foreign reserves as of the end of last week.
    https://www.ft.com/content/e47fce18-...d-04f350474d62

    These padded numbers are only going to last a month before repayment is due anyway. Erdogan buys several weeks of looking better than he really is before payment is yet again due. Problem is - the international financial markets have even less trust in Turkey now than they used to. This makes the cure for Turkey worse and worse and even perhaps more unlikely to happen.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Boring failtrolling off-topic verbal masturbation about Australia, Chinese invasions etc removed because it has already been repeated about 20 or 30 times to try and get out of actually discussing the OP topic - specifically Turkey's economic collapse and its consequences
    If I hated Turkey so much, I'd be jumping for joy about Erdogan remaining in power. He causes more damage to Turkey and its national interest than any living individual I can think of.

    Leave a comment:


  • CaymanWolvon
    replied
    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post

    Still avoiding the question "for whatever reason" hey GayboyWolvon.

    Where's the reference for this data - or did you pull it out of your arse like you do with most of your statistics?



    Quite hilarious when a few village boys in Turkey like yourself were smashing up their iPhones

    [/SIZE][/SIZE]

    No need to continue to send things off-topic - start another topic if you don't wish to discuss Turkey's rapidly plunging economy...




    You have to fanboy the very little technical expertise that your country of some 80 million has to give the false impression that Turkey is developing economically beyond building poorly constructed buildings and serving 2nd tier tourists.



    Irrelevant whether Australia has such projects or not - the thread is about Turkey. I don't have to fanboy the multitude of technical projects that Australia has in order to bullshit the situation in Australia - Australia's economic situation is sustainable, Turkey's is not.

    In any case, even if your Hitler at the last moment of victory wonder weapon of economics as illustrated above proves to be correct and you immediately produce, you're only going to make a couple of hundred million out of it - that's only about 0.1% of your funding requirements.



    Hey GayboyWolvon, Turkey needs to find another $115 billion just to refinance by the end of the year. Given the lies and bullshit that the Turkish Central Bank and other Turkish government related institutes are telling about the economy, who's going to believe the bullshit you are telling us there?



    Sure you lazy GAY ANSUCK, first pay your 126% external debts before even trying to criticize which you always miss the reality

    U.S. stocks close lower as Turkey, trade worries continue to weigh


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...cus-2018-08-15
    October was a horrible month for stocks
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/31/i...ber/index.html


    Turkish Economy
    Statistics for the year 2009
    1$ is equal to 1.80TL
    Net Turkish minimum wage is: 574TL
    Highest Dollar value against Turkish lira compared to minimum wage(Purchasing Power): 0,31%
    ​Turkish GDP growth rate: -4.7%
    ​Turkish inflation rate: 9.5%

    Turkish Economy
    Statistics for the year 2017
    1$ is equal to 3.7TL
    Net Turkish minimum wage is: 1404TL
    Highest Dollar value against Turkish lira compared to minimum wage(Purchasing Power): 0,28%
    ​Turkish GDP growth rate: 7.4%
    ​Turkish inflation rate: 10-15%

    Statistics for the year 2018
    1$ is equal to 7.20TL
    Net Turkish minimum wage is: 1620TL
    Highest Dollar value against Turkish lira compared to minimum wage(Purchasing Power): 0,44% (Highest since 2009)
    ​Turkish GDP growth rate: 2.6%
    ​Turkish inflation rate: 20,30%


    Statistics for the year 2019
    1$ is equal to 5.98TL
    Net Turkish minimum wage is: 2020TL
    Highest Dollar value against Turkish lira compared to minimum wage(Purchasing Power): 0,29%
    Turkish GDP growth rate: 0.6%
    Turkish inflation rate: 19%


    Statistics for the year 2020 (Possibility based on current variables)
    1$ is equal to 5.90TL
    Net Turkish minimum wage is: 2540TL
    Highest Dollar value against Turkish lira compared to minimum wage(Purchasing Power): 0,23% (The best since 2009) (I don't know how it was before 2009)
    Turkish GDP growth rate: +2.5%
    Turkish inflation rate: 9-11%

    Statistics for the year 2021 (Possibility based on current variables)
    1$ is equal to 6.2TL
    Net Turkish minimum wage is: 3160TL
    Highest Dollar value against Turkish lira compared to minimum wage(Purchasing Power): 0,19%
    Turkish GDP growth rate: +5.0%
    Turkish inflation rate: 4-9%

    Originally posted by aussieinbg_ANSUCK View Post
    So GayboyWolvon: where is Turkey going to get $115 billion to refinance their debt by the end of the year?
    According to aussie ansuck, Turkiye must pay $115 billion till end of this year while Turkiye has got $139 billion foreign currency reserves(Euro-USD)

    Turkiye foreign exchange reserves:




    BTW what about Australia, aussies' pants will soon be distrained and Australia will be forcibly occupied by China and Indonesia as the cost of Australian debt to China and Indonesia LOL
    Last edited by CaymanWolvon; 04-29-2019, 11:21 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    aussie ansuck, why are you always talking that way which only work for your hyperbole opinions?
    Still avoiding the question "for whatever reason" hey GayboyWolvon.

    Where's the reference for this data - or did you pull it out of your arse like you do with most of your statistics?

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Last time we remember what happened to U.S stock market in October 2018 when Dollar value against Turkish lira has reached 7.20TL and when Turkish people has boicoted usage of Apple brand electronic products , while Dollar passes 7TL, it doesn't only gain value against Turkish Lira but also other countries like South American, Asian and African currencies.
    Quite hilarious when a few village boys in Turkey like yourself were smashing up their iPhones

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    verbally masturbated crap about another economy, not Turkey's


    No need to continue to send things off-topic - start another topic if you don't wish to discuss Turkey's rapidly plunging economy...

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post

    At this point USA can't sell any stuff and U.S companies will lose the race against Chinese, Taiwanese and Korean alternatives. I remember USA has given technology transfer to Korea and Taiwan to produce semi-conductors.
    Besides this, Taiwan, Korea and China aren't only semi-conductor producers, Turkiye is also about to join this group and Turkiye didn't take any technology transfer about this subject.

    Çakıl Microprocessor, prototype, minister Mustafa Varank at Turkish National Assembly.
    Data processing: 10GB/s
    Core : 1 (Under development on multiple cores)


    You have to fanboy the very little technical expertise that your country of some 80 million has to give the false impression that Turkey is developing economically beyond building poorly constructed buildings and serving 2nd tier tourists.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    And your country will never have such projects, ansuck. Just because, you have 126% debts to pay and our national debt is only close to 50% of our GDP.
    Irrelevant whether Australia has such projects or not - the thread is about Turkey. I don't have to fanboy the multitude of technical projects that Australia has in order to bullshit the situation in Australia - Australia's economic situation is sustainable, Turkey's is not.

    In any case, even if your Hitler at the last moment of victory wonder weapon of economics as illustrated above proves to be correct and you immediately produce, you're only going to make a couple of hundred million out of it - that's only about 0.1% of your funding requirements.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Because there is domestic production in our country while you're importing products from abroad.
    Hey GayboyWolvon, Turkey needs to find another $115 billion just to refinance by the end of the year. Given the lies and bullshit that the Turkish Central Bank and other Turkish government related institutes are telling about the economy, who's going to believe the bullshit you are telling us there?

    So GayboyWolvon: where is Turkey going to get $115 billion to refinance their debt by the end of the year?

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
    I am utterly sure and completely convinced that the figures you have posted are true according to you.....
    Now , with all this wonderous economic activity going on,,,what is the Turkey govts piece of the action,,,what is the bottom line ? is the govt actually making ANY serious money ? if so,,,why unlike the countries you quoted,,,is the Turkey govt having to constantly draw down its reserves ? reserves are that money "for a rainy day "...Twelve months ago or a year ago what were Turkeys reserves ? With all the fabulous projects looming in Turkeys future,,,where do those reserves stand today....When you can't balance the bbudget because you can't reduce social spending ( mosque funding and the moslem brotherhood activities etc ) and tax and revenue income are insufficient you either take new loans or you pay out from the rainy day money...
    Where does Turkeys credit rating stand today ?
    I notice you are buying missile systems from Russia,,,how much will they give you for an American f35...You had no problem selling Israeli drone tech to Iran but on the otherhand if the Americans catch you,,,,Oy Vavoy….
    Another bunch are stating the bleeding obvious that the Turkish lira is in for a massive crash:

    According to Goldman, the unexpected removal last week by the central bank of its pledge for additional tightening if needed "opened the door" to both interest-rate cuts and further currency depreciation.
    "Rates are still not high enough to restore confidence in the lira," as indicated by continuing "dollarization", or the increasing share of foreign-exchange deposits in the banking system, Goldman economists Murat Unur and Clemens Grafe wrote in separate note April 25 according to Bloomberg. They also wrote that the central bank will "need to take action to stabilize the lira," adding that "savers require higher risk premia to be willing to hold a higher share of their deposits in TRY."
    As a result, Goldman projects TRY to fall to 6.25 in three months, 6.5 in six months, and crash to an all time low of 7 within 12 months, marking a 15% slide in coming year. On Sunday night, Lira was trading at 5.9500.
    The full Goldman note is below:
    TRY: TCMB opens the door to a cut (and more currency depreciation). On Thursday the TCMB kept its policy rate unchanged at 24%, but removed its tightening bias which stated, “if needed, further tightening would be delivered”. By removing this bias, the central bank opened the door to not only a rate cut at its next meeting on June 12 but also further currency depreciation. The sharp hike in policy rates last year was a necessary condition to stabilize the Lira; and while the policy rate is high enough to achieve a balanced current account, a renewed series of cuts will not help with anchoring inflation expectations or stemming the degree of ongoing dollarization in the economy. Our economists have raised their year-end inflation forecasts to +14% yoy by year-end, taking into account the depreciation of the Lira in recent weeks, and we are rolling our forecasts to show even further depreciation (USD/TRY to 6.25, 6.50 and 7.00 in 3, 6 and 12 months).
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...lows-12-months

    I suspect that they are being ultraconservative about the real situation in Turkey - already Turkey has demonstrably lied about the financial situation there. I'm wondering what other lies are to be uncovered there...

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  • Elishar
    replied
    I am utterly sure and completely convinced that the figures you have posted are true according to you.....
    Now , with all this wonderous economic activity going on,,,what is the Turkey govts piece of the action,,,what is the bottom line ? is the govt actually making ANY serious money ? if so,,,why unlike the countries you quoted,,,is the Turkey govt having to constantly draw down its reserves ? reserves are that money "for a rainy day "...Twelve months ago or a year ago what were Turkeys reserves ? With all the fabulous projects looming in Turkeys future,,,where do those reserves stand today....When you can't balance the bbudget because you can't reduce social spending ( mosque funding and the moslem brotherhood activities etc ) and tax and revenue income are insufficient you either take new loans or you pay out from the rainy day money...
    Where does Turkeys credit rating stand today ?
    I notice you are buying missile systems from Russia,,,how much will they give you for an American f35...You had no problem selling Israeli drone tech to Iran but on the otherhand if the Americans catch you,,,,Oy Vavoy….

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  • CaymanWolvon
    replied


    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
    Meanwhile, the Turkish Central Bank can't even get its story straight about monetary policy. But I guess that if you have someone like Erdogan - someone with a fake economics degree - ultimately in charge of things then you won't be able to be consistent about what you say....

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...her-tightening

    So tell us GayboyWolvon - when is the IMF going to rescue Turkey, or has Turkey pissed off so many people that the IMF will now stand on the sidelines and watch Turkey turn into another Venezuela?
    USA external debts in 2015: 97%
    USA external debts in 2017: 115%

    France, external debts: 213% = new greece(economical collapse, minimum wage fall), yellow vest protests
    United Kingdom, external debts: 313% = new greece(economical collapse, minimum wage fall), yellow vest protests, environmentalist protests(not really related to envrioment, they're just stressful for bad economical conditions )

    Turkiye, external debts: 53%, not a new greece(no yellow vest protests, minimum wage is RISING), investments and projects are continuing as well as new Istanbul airport is now fully active which will generate 4.9% more to Turkish GDP growth rate.
    New Industrial towns and serial productions of domestic industrial products are about to began which will generate another over 5% to Turkish GDP growth rate.



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