Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Crash of the Turkish Economy

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #76
    Erdogan wants earlier elections because he knows that turkish economy will go more downhill in next years. Turkish state is so incompetent in its currency stabilization that even earlier elections strategy could go wrong. Hence we can expect a hard propaganda battle on for the favor of turkish diaspora in the west and lot of limited trolls in forums with a lot of childish level "gigantic turkish yarak" comments.

    The reality is that Turkey is political isolated from earlier NATO partners, economy needs investments and stability, those aren't given at the moment. After 15 years of self proclaimed Sultan won't this state fast recover.

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by toor0 View Post
      With maximum butthurt and extra libido, some members of Western troll team for Anti-Turk propaganda are sulking to women in their countries too, not only Turks :-) The exception ones are what you have explained in your post. True judgment is even old Western womens mentioned as unable to get a partner in their own country choose to waste their last chance in foreign countries which despised by the forum trolls who only trust their Western status. It seems lustful horny minority in Turkey is better than majority in the West.


      Here is only platform that as a country Turkey is blocked by users, I don't know another one. Interpals has a lot of flirters, trolls etc from all around the world but only Turkey is target of a horde in the exchange section and target of a team in the forum To be blocked and target by the exchangers who has prejudgment to Turkey and forum trolls who feed their libido with visits in the profiles of Turkish girls... It shows the stupidity of the exchangers and your butthurt.

      not bringing back to the memories, still reading the daydreamer shitposters. Maybe in a parallel universe it can be, or in that parallel world the next choice will be to be a manipulator on Interpals forums. But not here
      Why don't you reply with your usual account, the bald coward one is a lot funnier ;-)

      Anyhow yet another epic fail from you, all turkey is the target of is knackered Western grannies wanting holiday fun and Western women on the internet immediately clicking the block icon after the first pervy turk message. Perhaps this will help explain how horny turk men are viewed on internet social sites in general .

      "Why are Turks so shameless in their persuit of women?"
      "When it comes to the persuit of the opposite sex, Turks seem to have no shame in the way they conduct themselves. By Western standards they come across as sleazy perverts, and half of them act it an almost peadophillic manner.
      Very rarely do you get Western males acting in a similar matter, but why? Is it simply a case of upbringing, by which Western males are brought up to highly respect women, and to fear their rejection. While Turkish are brought up to view women as very much their inferiors, and not to take no for an answer, to ignore any rejection? Prehaps it stems as deep as the result of Turkey being an Islamic, but also relatively liberal society. Women in Islam are very much the inferior sex, so combine that with sexual openess being acceptable and the result is very sleazy behaviour."

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
        Erdogan wants earlier elections because he knows that turkish economy will go more downhill in next years.
        It's already a total mess right now. Steve Hanke - a well known economist that a fanboy on this thread had already "quoted" - states that the real inflation rate in Turkey is close to 40%, rather than the 10% or so the official Turkish government figures state:

        https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-inflati...economist-says

        Gravity catches up with bullshit when it can no longer be held onto. Bits of it are already hitting the ground. Once the markets fully comprehend that Turkey has been lying and bullshitting its statistics for years, then it's "game over".

        Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
        Turkish state is so incompetent in its currency stabilization that even earlier elections strategy could go wrong.
        I'm pretty sure that Erdogan's "brothers" can find ways to turn 20% support into 55% at the ballot box.

        Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
        Hence we can expect a hard propaganda battle on for the favor of turkish diaspora in the west and lot of limited trolls in forums with a lot of childish level "gigantic turkish yarak" comments.
        I suspect that the West is beginning to understand what some of the tricks are. The religious immigrants to places like Germany and The Netherlands are Erdogan's voter base and are vital for his "reelection strategy". It's a much harder game hiding 15% voter fraud than 10% vote rigging and having all those external "voters" makes it also all the more easier to play the ballot box stuffing game - aside from the 'legitimate" voters they would garner from the religious ones living abroad.

        Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
        The reality is that Turkey is political isolated from earlier NATO partners, economy needs investments and stability, those aren't given at the moment. After 15 years of self proclaimed Sultan won't this state fast recover.
        Turkey has managed to piss off just about everyone. A country with a completely screwed up economy needs all the friends that it can get. When Turkey goes over the cliff, it will need someone to catch them. Turkey has already sucked in many 10s of billions of dollars of Qatari reserves into their Ponzi scheme of an economy. Russia itself doesn't have that much in foreign reserves and has its own problems with its own economy and the Rouble. I can't see too many who can pick up after Turkey's train wreck - except the Chinese waiting on the sidelines ready to pick up the trainwreck at bargain basement prices to sell as scrap.

        Comment


        • #79
          Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post

          It's already a total mess right now. Steve Hanke - a well known economist that a fanboy on this thread had already "quoted" - states that the real inflation rate in Turkey is close to 40%, rather than the 10% or so the official Turkish government figures state:

          https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-inflati...economist-says

          Gravity catches up with bullshit when it can no longer be held onto. Bits of it are already hitting the ground. Once the markets fully comprehend that Turkey has been lying and bullshitting its statistics for years, then it's "game over".



          I'm pretty sure that Erdogan's "brothers" can find ways to turn 20% support into 55% at the ballot box.



          I suspect that the West is beginning to understand what some of the tricks are. The religious immigrants to places like Germany and The Netherlands are Erdogan's voter base and are vital for his "reelection strategy". It's a much harder game hiding 15% voter fraud than 10% vote rigging and having all those external "voters" makes it also all the more easier to play the ballot box stuffing game - aside from the 'legitimate" voters they would garner from the religious ones living abroad.



          Turkey has managed to piss off just about everyone. A country with a completely screwed up economy needs all the friends that it can get. When Turkey goes over the cliff, it will need someone to catch them. Turkey has already sucked in many 10s of billions of dollars of Qatari reserves into their Ponzi scheme of an economy. Russia itself doesn't have that much in foreign reserves and has its own problems with its own economy and the Rouble. I can't see too many who can pick up after Turkey's train wreck - except the Chinese waiting on the sidelines ready to pick up the trainwreck at bargain basement prices to sell as scrap.
          Hmmmm,Djibouti gives china the "last word" on the suez canal,,,Chinese missiles on the bosphorous?? anyone know how many ships a Day go through there ?

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by Elishar View Post
            Hmmmm,Djibouti gives china the "last word" on the suez canal,,,Chinese missiles on the bosphorous??
            I've already had such thoughts permeating my head. The Chinese way has always been economic imperialism. It's a much cheaper way of getting control than sending massive armies over long distances from home. They are lurching away from that strategy and getting into games like blue water navies with multiple aircraft carriers. This will ultimately screw the Chinese over, but that's another topic and getting off-topic here.

            Anyway, pparently the mad Sultan wants to spend 10s of billions to dig a canal parallel to the Bosphorus. Spending a few hundred million dollars on better IT to better schedule ships passing through the straights would be a better spend of their money but that's another story. In any case, where is he going to get all the cash needed to dig that big ditch? And of course the Chinese will need to protect their investment...

            In terms of controlling Turkey - it just requires a few percent of Chinese foreign reserves to pick up a whole bunch of bankrupted companies at bargain-basement prices to thereby establish just about complete control over the economy there. Who needs an invasion force? This is the ultimate guarantor for the Chinese that the Turks won't be telling their Chinese "guests" that they are no longer welcome.

            In the meantime, the Turks will play out the classic "Sick Man of Europe" Ottoman negotiation tactics with the US and EU pointing out that "if you don't support us, the Chinese will" in order to bring in a few billion more to starve off complete collapse. The Ottoman Empire's rump continues its decline...

            The arse has really fallen out of the Turkish Lira of late. You have the usual kook suspects such as Masons, Jews, EU, US and so on behind all this. The one I don't hear getting mentioned are the Chinese - who have the most ultimately to gain from a massively diving Lira. All of this of course assumes that Turkey's financial woes are not self-inflicted - something also missing from the assessments of Turkish conspiracy theory kooks.

            Originally posted by Elishar View Post
            anyone know how many ships a Day go through there ?
            Google is your friend...

            http://www.bosphorusstrait.com/2016/...s-strait-2015/

            Comment


            • #81
              This is pretty scary:

              https://moneyweek.com/how-turkey-cou...down-the-euro/

              Comment


              • #82
                MSN UK Outlook is relaying that the british foreign office is warning british tourists to be VERY careful if they are visiting tur key because it could rapidly get VERY dangerous for tourists but also highlights the threats made particularly against brit tourists...
                How much will that likely take off turkey tourist income for this year,,,,???

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
                  This problem of lending money to economically less stable countries should be a problem of those who lend them money. Unfortunately before Bundes-Mutti Merkel brought over Europe the blessings of illegal economic immigration from ME and Africa, she was obsessed with the Idea that Euro especially German taxpayers are obliged to buy Greek 'Bad papers'. Those Bad papers have been just state obligations that Greek state wasn't willing to buy back.
                  Probably banks that lend Turkey money will remain with their debt papers this time because Turkey isn't Greece and is certainly not "EU system relevant". However this is healthy capitalism, you want to lend money you have to take under account that you could get it never back. Socializing of expenditures, risks and loses while capitalizing of profits, can't be a never ending business model. Because the resource that is necessary for socializing, the tax money, is limited.
                  I think this time many of the lenders who lent turkey money, will slide with their butts over the blade.
                  Last edited by Hades91; 06-06-2018, 06:56 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
                    MSN UK Outlook is relaying that the british foreign office is warning british tourists to be VERY careful if they are visiting tur key because it could rapidly get VERY dangerous for tourists but also highlights the threats made particularly against brit tourists...
                    How much will that likely take off turkey tourist income for this year,,,,???
                    Yes, the British media everywhere presently are highlighting the travel warnings to Turkey. I'd guess at least 25% or more Brits won't come to Turkey this year who otherwise would have been there. The travel warnings tend to have flow-on effects and the people who would have been booking a Turkish holiday now

                    I'm wondering what the travel warnings for other groups are for Turkey such as the Netherlands and Germany.

                    All this is rather personal for me - Bulgaria is expecting a conservative 10% or more increase in hotel bookings for the summer season this year. My beach holiday is just about to get a bit more expensive than I had planned. Who knows, if things calm down after the election, there might be some very very cheap beach holidays to be had in Turkey in spite of the $100 visa fee that Turkey wants to charge.

                    But I seriously doubt that this will be the case. Either way the election goes, there will be a huge deterioration in both the economic and the political situation there.

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Moodys has just downgraded just about all of Turkey's banks further into junk status with a negative watch.... this isn't looking pretty at all...

                      https://www.moodys.com/research/Mood...ons--PR_384576




                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
                        This problem of lending money to economically less stable countries should be a problem of those who lend them money. Unfortunately before Bundes-Mutti Merkel brought over Europe the blessings of illegal economic immigration from ME and Africa, she was obsessed with the Idea that Euro especially German taxpayers are obliged to buy Greek 'Bad papers'. Those Bad papers have been just state obligations that Greek state wasn't willing to buy back.
                        The Greeks and the EU (aka Germany) had guns to each others heads. The Germans had debt exposure to Greek government bonds and the like which would cause huge problems for the Euro if it all were to collapse like a house of cards. The Greeks were going to collapse and create huge problems for the EU.. everyone's interest to fix things ultimately.

                        It was a very close call. If someone on the German side had woken up with a bad headache one day and had decided to tell Greece that day to "f* off", then Greece would have collapsed. Ultimately it came down to good will to rescue Greece. Greece hadn't pissed off too many people, although there were attempts at times to do so.

                        Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
                        Probably banks that lend Turkey money will remain with their debt papers this time because Turkey isn't Greece and is certainly not "EU system relevant".
                        Relatively little reported was that Argentina has just got the biggest single bailout in IMF history. Beforehand, the Argentinian government had been playing very nicely with the international community and not trying to piss off any and everyone.

                        Now, how willing the EU is to help Turkey will depend on what happens at the election on June 24. If in spite of a very highly rigged ballot box the Turks somehow manage to depose the Sultan, then there is a chance that a "reset" can be called and Turkey at that point might get some financial assistance and get pulled out of the fire.

                        However, I'm very fearful that this is not going to be the case. There are already numerous cases of setting up things to get rigged - whether it is villages that are anti-Erdogan suddenly "losing" polling stations, village Imams chasing out opposition candidates handing out leaflets or 90% of private media in Turkey being in the hands of Erdogan cronies and not permitting opposition airtime. There are almost certainly many other things that have not been reported.

                        Once the shit really hits the fan after the elections there - when the Turkish economy has its crash landing, like a drunk who has consumed two bottles of vodka the night before, the Turkish economy is going to require rescuing. Watch Erdogan try to sell his arse to any and everyone who wants it - like he did with Putin not so long ago.

                        I'm not sure if the IMF is going to be as nice to Turkey as it was to Argentina when finally Erdogan goes to the IMF with the begging bowl and offers of free anal.

                        Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
                        However this is healthy capitalism, you want to lend money you have to take under account that you could get it never back. Socializing of expenditures, risks and loses while capitalizing of profits, can't be a never ending business model. Because the resource that is necessary for socializing, the tax money, is limited.
                        A huge percentage of the dodgy loans in Turkey are to cronies of Erdogan and their associated companies. I doubt that too much effort will be expended saving their arses one way or the other.

                        Originally posted by Hades91 View Post
                        I think this time many of the lenders who lent turkey money, will slide with their butts over the blade.
                        Italian and Spanish banks are particularly exposed to Turkish loans. If I had any significant money in an Italian or Spanish bank, I'd be doing some rather urgent research right now about that bank's exposure to Turkish loans.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Perhaps Turkey might have a chance of pulling itself out of the shit if it gets rid of Erdogan. This is looking more likely given that Erdogan's support in the polls has been dropping quite rapidly:

                          https://www.turkishminute.com/2018/0...ays-elections/

                          Unfortunately for Turkey there's also ballot box rigging to contend with.

                          Let's see what happens tomorrow at the election there.

                          Comment

                          Working...
                          X