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  • aussieinbg
    started a topic Crash of the Turkish Economy

    Crash of the Turkish Economy

    The Turkish Lira has crashed to by far its lowest historical level. Today, I saw the Turkish Lira was well below the psychologically dangerous level of 4TL to 1 $US.

    https://anfenglish.com/news/turkish-...d-dollar-25800

    This is symptomatic of the perilous situation that the Turkish economy finds itself in. Turkey has all the makings of being the next Venezuela - high inflation, scatterbrained Islamofascist dictator, grandiose construction projects and the burning of money on uneducated populations to shore up popular support.. plus a NeoNazi grouping with huge representation in the Turkish parliament which the Turkish president relies on to rubber-stamp legislation.

    Do you think Turkey's economy will crash and burn? When will this happen?

    Do you think tactics such as Turkish parliamentarians investigating "Islamophobia" and other such nonsense is merely a case of diversionary tactics to take the focus away from the Turkish economy's really dreadful state?

    Economic collapse usually leads to massive political problems and even civil war when you have the explosive mix that exists such as we see in Turkey between different competing groups.

    What are the chances of eventually a civil war engulfing Turkey - which groups would likely be the participants of such a civil war? Would such a civil be even far worse than the conflict we see in Syria presently?







  • drax_absolute
    replied
    Erdogan likes to cause scandals, anyone remember when he made an embarrassment of himself at funeral of Muhammad Ali, that's how his behavior will crash his economy.

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    Typical islamic behavior. Blaming everyone around for their own mistakes.
    Islam is the cult of intimidation and deception, no surprise their societies and political class is strongly influenced by this way of thinking.
    ?
    On the face of it, Erdogan has been "accepting" of the election result in Istanbul. He's setting up things precisely to play this game - blaming everyone else but himself for his mistakes.

    Now, Erdogan has a scapegoat for the full crash of the Turkish economy that is coming very shortly - a mayor of Istanbul who is not of his Islamofascist political grouping. It would have been better to have had that mayor in place in March - but I suspect that Erdogan's cronies wanted a few weeks to do an Armenian-genocide-coverup-like cleanup of the Istanbul city financial archives to hide what has been going on.

    And the crash is very very close. Even the New York Times is now writing very generic articles about Turkey's impending economic collapse:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/24/b...ss&partner=rss

    I've been trying to find numbers about the Turkish Central Bank's reserves for June 2019 - but these seem to be nonexistent. Apart from a story about how the Turkish government had looted 40 billion Lira from the bank's reserves in May - nothing. My bet is that the Turkish Central Bank has little or no money left.

    The fireworks show is just about ready to start...


    Leave a comment:


  • Hades91x
    replied
    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
    Turkey is threatening financial journalists with jail for simply doing their job:



    https://cpj.org/2019/06/turkey-charg...underminin.php

    Thing is, it's not just a matter of journalists being thrown into prison because they are saying things that an Islamofascist dictator doesn't want to hear - it's that by such threats that the world is not hearing about the real state of the Turkish economy and not getting the full picture. Journalists are being blackmailed into publishing a nicer picture than what really exists.

    Therefore, it is very highly likely that things are far worse in Turkey than we can imagine - even worse than the very bad picture of the Turkish economy that already exists. I wonder what else is being covered up about the Turkish economy?

    Typical islamic behavior. Blaming everyone around for their own mistakes.
    Islam is the cult of intimidation and deception, no surprise their societies and political class is strongly influenced by this way of thinking.

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Turkey is threatening financial journalists with jail for simply doing their job:

    New York, June 14, 2019 - The Committee to Protect Journalists condemned the decision by Turkey's judiciary to charge two Bloomberg reporterstheir employer and media reports. If convicted, the journalists could be jailed for up to five years.
    The indictment comes after the Turkish banking regulator BDDK filed a criminal complaint, according to reports. The charges stem from an August 10, 2018 article
    https://cpj.org/2019/06/turkey-charg...underminin.php

    Thing is, it's not just a matter of journalists being thrown into prison because they are saying things that an Islamofascist dictator doesn't want to hear - it's that by such threats that the world is not hearing about the real state of the Turkish economy and not getting the full picture. Journalists are being blackmailed into publishing a nicer picture than what really exists.

    Therefore, it is very highly likely that things are far worse in Turkey than we can imagine - even worse than the very bad picture of the Turkish economy that already exists. I wonder what else is being covered up about the Turkish economy?


    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Meanwhile, Moodys rating agency has just announced a further downgrade to Turkey's credit rating - sending Turkey into even deeper junk territory:

    Paris, June 14, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today downgraded the Government of Turkey's long-term issuer ratings to B1 from Ba3 and has maintained the negative outlook. The senior unsecured bond ratings and senior unsecured shelf ratings have also been downgraded to B1 and (P)B1 respectively from Ba3/(P)Ba3.

    https://www.moodys.com/research/Mood...ook--PR_402552

    At the moment, Greece is rated better than Turkey - same rating and stable whereas Turkey has a negative outlook.

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    I doubt that manufacturing has recovered in Turkey. The main road through Bulgaria was hugely devoid of Turkish trucks yet again when I was travelling to and from the Black Sea during the last week. I could be wrong - Turkey might have increased their exports to Iran by 300% over the past year to recover the gap

    Increased wages fuelled by ever-increasing foreign debt by a government buying support rather than driven by increased productivity is a recipe for disaster. Another factor sending Turkey over the cliff now.

    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
    The govt has to pay the true rate of the infidel loan but has not itself loaned the money to Turkeys at a sustainable rate...
    Now Turkeys turkeys have come home to roost,koran versus reality...
    Even if you want to play the "Islamic finance" game, it comes down to "profits verses risk". I wonder what the "Islamic finance" return is for Turkish debt at the moment? My bet would be something equivalent to an interest rate of 25-30% on lira debt...

    Speaking of Islamic financiers - Qatar has just pulled out billions out of the sinking Turkish economy. Seems the Saudis are more worried directly about Iran than invading Qatar at the moment....

    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
    Add to this the maniacal delusions of grandeur of Erdogan " the palace"...I think you will find that all the great palaces of Europe were built from money in hand , not borrowed..
    Erdogan's sultan palace "the White House" in Ankara was built on credit and continues an Ottoman tradition of building palaces on borrowed money - part of cause of the economic problems the Ottomans had in the 19th century.

    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
    The airport showcase of Europe perfectly suited to the expression luftsgescheften,,,pie in the sky...Did Erdogan think that Dubai would just fold its tents and go back to the desert ? Dubai is an airport designed and built by experts from all over the world and I just don't see Turkey airport taking business from them...
    I don't see Istanbul Airport taking business from anyone. The figures for May 2019 of just over 5 million passengers are roughly the same figures for Ataturk Airport this time last year. Now if, as they were claiming, there was such huge demand for the new Istanbul Airport, then you would have seen a massive jump in passenger numbers. Airlines would have been crawling over themselves to get extra landing slots at that airport and would have been prepared to run 1/2-full loss-making flights to secure them.

    I'm wondering what will happen to this airport when Turkish Airlines finally goes broke. I guess there will be a quite a few 10 Euro flights from budget airlines going from Sofia to Istanbul when the landing fees meet the criteria of Ryan Air and so on

    Leave a comment:


  • green3apple
    replied
    Lately, a very senior journalist in my country also share similiar views, no matter how fast the ballerina spins on pivot, in the end it's the cleavage that count, the one who hold natural resources may survive.

    Leave a comment:


  • Elishar
    replied
    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    https://www.webtekno.com/yerli-mikro...il-h60028.html



    Turkiye doesn't apply Islamic rules based on bullshits of wahhabis which are UAE and Saudis' themselves, wahhabi Islam is cruel which meant to be out of Islamic ways.

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    [QUOTE=CaymanWolvon;n3092865]
    You're going to be symbolic about FOOL being
    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/minimum-wages
    Turkey Gross Minimum Monthly Wage


    Looks like hyper-inflation wage increases to me and not driven by genuine productivity - Erdogan bribing his headbanging base supporters with foreign loans which are the basis for the economic crisis that is causing Turkey to turn back into a real complete shithole and reversing the gains that Ataturk had made.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Europe has just begun to bring the TAXES to prevent economical collapse which make western people disturbed of loose of current comfort of life cheapness and luxury.
    This will be usual in all Western countries very soon, YELLOW VEST DOMINO EFFECT:
    People are allowed to protest in Europe - unfortunately, it gets violent because, among other elements, you tend to find Islamofascists infiltrating the protests.

    Meanwhile, in Turkey, arrests just like we had seen in Soviet Russia - here's an account of a makeshift prison viewable from Sultan Erdogan's palace in Ankara:

    https://euobserver.com/foreign/143575

    The Islamofascists in Turkey remind me a lot of Soviet Russia....

    Leave a comment:


  • CaymanWolvon
    replied
    https://www.webtekno.com/yerli-mikro...il-h60028.html


    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
    I suspect that one of the principle reasons for the Turkey collapse lies in Interest,,if turkey banks and companies borrow according to the infidel money rules they must also return those loans according to the same infidel rules,,but if at home loans are being passed to Turkeys according to koranic rules then who or what is going to pay the shortfall in interest between the external cost of the loan and the local income generated by that loan ?
    The govt has to pay the true rate of the infidel loan but has not itself loaned the money to Turkeys at a sustainable rate...
    Now Turkeys turkeys have come home to roost,koran versus reality...
    Add to this the maniacal delusions of grandeur of Erdogan " the palace"...I think you will find that all the great palaces of Europe were built from money in hand , not borrowed..
    The airport showcase of Europe perfectly suited to the expression luftsgescheften,,,pie in the sky...Did Erdogan think that Dubai would just fold its tents and go back to the desert ? Dubai is an airport designed and built by experts from all over the world and I just don't see Turkey airport taking business from them...
    Turkiye doesn't apply Islamic rules based on bullshits of wahhabis which are UAE and Saudis' themselves, wahhabi Islam is cruel which meant to be out of Islamic ways.

    Leave a comment:


  • Elishar
    replied
    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post


    You're going to be symbolic about FOOL being
    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/minimum-wages
    Turkey Gross Minimum Monthly Wage



    Europe has just begun to bring the TAXES to prevent economical collapse which make western people disturbed of loose of current comfort of life cheapness and luxury.
    This will be usual in all Western countries very soon, YELLOW VEST DOMINO EFFECT:

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    I suppose treating EU with opening of the border for "refugees" like they did once. Maybe selling they "table silver" to China, however losing most profitable economic resources ins't a wise long term strategy.
    ?
    By the end of it, Erdogan will end up selling his daughters and granddaughters to stay in power....

    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    The inflation was high before
    2,2 TRY for 1 USD end of 2013 ---> 3,8 TRY end of 2017 = 42% / 5 years = 8,4 % annually ( usually is 3% optimal )
    now it moves to hyperinflation.
    ?
    Yes, Turkey has just gone over the cliff and people like GayboyWolvon probably think that Allah has given him wings to fly


    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    Good to know.
    Anyways, cash-accounts with ridiculous low interest rates have been for me always just a temporary option.
    Having money in a Spanish bank is one question. Another is how much your pension or other fund has invested in Spanish banks.

    Note also that the German banks have significantly reduced their exposure to Turkey's economy over the last few months....

    Leave a comment:


  • CaymanWolvon
    replied
    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
    They're now very openly talking about Turkey defaulting on their sovereign debt aka Venezuela:




    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1SR1XL

    Now, Turkey's hard cash buffers have just about run out and Erdogan has completely burnt his bridges with the IMF - so no bailout from there. I can't see where Erdogan and his cronies are going to pull 10's of billions of dollars to save Turkey turning into Venezuela at short notice....

    Here's a nice picture showing where the lira is ultimately heading:



    Now, the banking system most exposed to Turkish debt in Europe is Spain's:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/230520...pigs-analysis/

    If I had money in a Spanish bank, I'd be putting it elsewhere...

    You're going to be symbolic about FOOL being
    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/minimum-wages
    Turkey Gross Minimum Monthly Wage



    Europe has just begun to bring the TAXES to prevent economical collapse which make western people disturbed of loose of current comfort of life cheapness and luxury.
    This will be usual in all Western countries very soon, YELLOW VEST DOMINO EFFECT:

    Leave a comment:


  • Hades91x
    replied
    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
    ...
    Now, Turkey's hard cash buffers have just about run out and Erdogan has completely burnt his bridges with the IMF - so no bailout from there. I can't see where Erdogan and his cronies are going to pull 10's of billions of dollars to save Turkey turning into Venezuela at short notice....
    I suppose treating EU with opening of the border for "refugees" like they did once. Maybe selling they "table silver" to China, however losing most profitable economic resources ins't a wise long term strategy.

    ?
    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
    ...
    Here's a nice picture showing where the lira is ultimately heading:

    The inflation was high before
    2,2 TRY for 1 USD end of 2013 ---> 3,8 TRY end of 2017 = 42% / 5 years = 8,4 % annually ( usually is 3% optimal )
    now it moves to hyperinflation.


    ?
    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
    Now, the banking system most exposed to Turkish debt in Europe is Spain's:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/230520...pigs-analysis/

    If I had money in a Spanish bank, I'd be putting it elsewhere...
    Good to know.
    Anyways, cash-accounts with ridiculous low interest rates have been for me always just a temporary option.

    Leave a comment:

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