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  • aussieinbg
    started a topic Crash of the Turkish Economy

    Crash of the Turkish Economy

    The Turkish Lira has crashed to by far its lowest historical level. Today, I saw the Turkish Lira was well below the psychologically dangerous level of 4TL to 1 $US.

    https://anfenglish.com/news/turkish-...d-dollar-25800

    This is symptomatic of the perilous situation that the Turkish economy finds itself in. Turkey has all the makings of being the next Venezuela - high inflation, scatterbrained Islamofascist dictator, grandiose construction projects and the burning of money on uneducated populations to shore up popular support.. plus a NeoNazi grouping with huge representation in the Turkish parliament which the Turkish president relies on to rubber-stamp legislation.

    Do you think Turkey's economy will crash and burn? When will this happen?

    Do you think tactics such as Turkish parliamentarians investigating "Islamophobia" and other such nonsense is merely a case of diversionary tactics to take the focus away from the Turkish economy's really dreadful state?

    Economic collapse usually leads to massive political problems and even civil war when you have the explosive mix that exists such as we see in Turkey between different competing groups.

    What are the chances of eventually a civil war engulfing Turkey - which groups would likely be the participants of such a civil war? Would such a civil be even far worse than the conflict we see in Syria presently?







  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Meanwhile, Moodys rating agency has just announced a further downgrade to Turkey's credit rating - sending Turkey into even deeper junk territory:

    Paris, June 14, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today downgraded the Government of Turkey's long-term issuer ratings to B1 from Ba3 and has maintained the negative outlook. The senior unsecured bond ratings and senior unsecured shelf ratings have also been downgraded to B1 and (P)B1 respectively from Ba3/(P)Ba3.

    https://www.moodys.com/research/Mood...ook--PR_402552

    At the moment, Greece is rated better than Turkey - same rating and stable whereas Turkey has a negative outlook.

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
    Minimum wage..This is probably what attracted EU countries to set up manufacturing plants in turkey,,Turkey was a place of cheap labour…
    When the Turkey govt keeps forcing foreign and domestic companies to Raise that minimum wage they begin to question,,why are we manufacturing in Turkey ?our profit margins are sinking day by day, we could make more money by producing in Armenia or Azerbaijan.so the factories will be moved OUT of Turkey taking the jobs with them..
    I suspect that one of the principle reasons for the Turkey collapse lies in Interest,,if turkey banks and companies borrow according to the infidel money rules they must also return those loans according to the same infidel rules,,but if at home loans are being passed to Turkeys according to koranic rules then who or what is going to pay the shortfall in interest between the external cost of the loan and the local income generated by that loan ?
    I doubt that manufacturing has recovered in Turkey. The main road through Bulgaria was hugely devoid of Turkish trucks yet again when I was travelling to and from the Black Sea during the last week. I could be wrong - Turkey might have increased their exports to Iran by 300% over the past year to recover the gap

    Increased wages fuelled by ever-increasing foreign debt by a government buying support rather than driven by increased productivity is a recipe for disaster. Another factor sending Turkey over the cliff now.

    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
    The govt has to pay the true rate of the infidel loan but has not itself loaned the money to Turkeys at a sustainable rate...
    Now Turkeys turkeys have come home to roost,koran versus reality...
    Even if you want to play the "Islamic finance" game, it comes down to "profits verses risk". I wonder what the "Islamic finance" return is for Turkish debt at the moment? My bet would be something equivalent to an interest rate of 25-30% on lira debt...

    Speaking of Islamic financiers - Qatar has just pulled out billions out of the sinking Turkish economy. Seems the Saudis are more worried directly about Iran than invading Qatar at the moment....

    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
    Add to this the maniacal delusions of grandeur of Erdogan " the palace"...I think you will find that all the great palaces of Europe were built from money in hand , not borrowed..
    Erdogan's sultan palace "the White House" in Ankara was built on credit and continues an Ottoman tradition of building palaces on borrowed money - part of cause of the economic problems the Ottomans had in the 19th century.

    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
    The airport showcase of Europe perfectly suited to the expression luftsgescheften,,,pie in the sky...Did Erdogan think that Dubai would just fold its tents and go back to the desert ? Dubai is an airport designed and built by experts from all over the world and I just don't see Turkey airport taking business from them...
    I don't see Istanbul Airport taking business from anyone. The figures for May 2019 of just over 5 million passengers are roughly the same figures for Ataturk Airport this time last year. Now if, as they were claiming, there was such huge demand for the new Istanbul Airport, then you would have seen a massive jump in passenger numbers. Airlines would have been crawling over themselves to get extra landing slots at that airport and would have been prepared to run 1/2-full loss-making flights to secure them.

    I'm wondering what will happen to this airport when Turkish Airlines finally goes broke. I guess there will be a quite a few 10 Euro flights from budget airlines going from Sofia to Istanbul when the landing fees meet the criteria of Ryan Air and so on

    Leave a comment:


  • green3apple
    replied
    Originally posted by Elishar View Post

    Repeatedly there is at least one fact you just can't see and yet it seeeems so plain,, > export sales,,,they aren't happening , all these advanced state of the art thingamies no one is paying Hard currencies for them...
    Do you like childrens riddles ?
    Simple Simon met a pieman going to the fair,said Simon to the pieman,,,let me taste your wares...Said the pieman to simon > show me first your penny... Your ability to pay is becoming non existant…
    I suggest you begin looking for raw materials,like boron for instance,to export,or water, Ohh yes you have a problem with that...
    Lately, a very senior journalist in my country also share similiar views, no matter how fast the ballerina spins on pivot, in the end it's the cleavage that count, the one who hold natural resources may survive.

    Leave a comment:


  • Elishar
    replied
    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    armenia with 3 million manpower can't provide the needing manpower for production, Azerbaijan either.
    There must be over 50 million YOUNG population and countries like China and India are greatest opportunuties for it as I-Phone mobile phones are made in China.
    I said minimum wage is rising, I didn't say it's gaining value. Dollar has risen proportional to rise of Turkish Minimum Wage because it effects global trade, causes more Turkish lira to be spent at abroad and making the situation same. For lira to gain value as currency without effecting value of Dollar against Turkish Lira, there must be domestical production for all USA brand critical parts like semi-conductor industry, vehicles engines(diesel,electric,gasoline,turboshaft,turbof an,turbojet),construction(roof parts etc.).
    Turkiye is mostly dependent to USA about construction and semi-conductor industry mainly computer parts like processor, graphic cards etc.
    Turkish company Ermaksan has developed a laser cutting machine, which high quality chips can be produced. It made Turkiye one of the a few country that can design and produce this technology.
    Aselsan, Bilkent and Tübitak are working on Turkish made semi-conductors to be mainly used for national defense and Turkish government has officially started construction of new Chip factories in Istanbul and Ankara.
    Lately one existed:
    Çakıl microprocessor
    10 GB/s data processing speed and a core(under development for multiple cores)
    https://www.webtekno.com/yerli-mikro...il-h60028.html



    Turkiye doesn't apply Islamic rules based on bullshits of wahhabis which are UAE and Saudis' themselves, wahhabi Islam is cruel which meant to be out of Islamic ways.
    Repeatedly there is at least one fact you just can't see and yet it seeeems so plain,, > export sales,,,they aren't happening , all these advanced state of the art thingamies no one is paying Hard currencies for them...
    Do you like childrens riddles ?
    Simple Simon met a pieman going to the fair,said Simon to the pieman,,,let me taste your wares...Said the pieman to simon > show me first your penny... Your ability to pay is becoming non existant…
    I suggest you begin looking for raw materials,like boron for instance,to export,or water, Ohh yes you have a problem with that...

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    [QUOTE=CaymanWolvon;n3092865]
    You're going to be symbolic about FOOL being
    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/minimum-wages
    Turkey Gross Minimum Monthly Wage


    Looks like hyper-inflation wage increases to me and not driven by genuine productivity - Erdogan bribing his headbanging base supporters with foreign loans which are the basis for the economic crisis that is causing Turkey to turn back into a real complete shithole and reversing the gains that Ataturk had made.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Europe has just begun to bring the TAXES to prevent economical collapse which make western people disturbed of loose of current comfort of life cheapness and luxury.
    This will be usual in all Western countries very soon, YELLOW VEST DOMINO EFFECT:
    People are allowed to protest in Europe - unfortunately, it gets violent because, among other elements, you tend to find Islamofascists infiltrating the protests.

    Meanwhile, in Turkey, arrests just like we had seen in Soviet Russia - here's an account of a makeshift prison viewable from Sultan Erdogan's palace in Ankara:

    https://euobserver.com/foreign/143575

    The Islamofascists in Turkey remind me a lot of Soviet Russia....

    Leave a comment:


  • CaymanWolvon
    replied
    Originally posted by Elishar View Post

    Minimum wage..This is probably what attracted EU countries to set up manufacturing plants in turkey,,Turkey was a place of cheap labour…
    When the Turkey govt keeps forcing foreign and domestic companies to Raise that minimum wage they begin to question,,why are we manufacturing in Turkey ?our profit margins are sinking day by day, we could make more money by producing in Armenia or Azerbaijan.so the factories will be moved OUT of Turkey taking the jobs with them..
    armenia with 3 million manpower can't provide the needing manpower for production, Azerbaijan either.
    There must be over 50 million YOUNG population and countries like China and India are greatest opportunuties for it as I-Phone mobile phones are made in China.
    I said minimum wage is rising, I didn't say it's gaining value. Dollar has risen proportional to rise of Turkish Minimum Wage because it effects global trade, causes more Turkish lira to be spent at abroad and making the situation same. For lira to gain value as currency without effecting value of Dollar against Turkish Lira, there must be domestical production for all USA brand critical parts like semi-conductor industry, vehicles engines(diesel,electric,gasoline,turboshaft,turbof an,turbojet),construction(roof parts etc.).
    Turkiye is mostly dependent to USA about construction and semi-conductor industry mainly computer parts like processor, graphic cards etc.
    Turkish company Ermaksan has developed a laser cutting machine, which high quality chips can be produced. It made Turkiye one of the a few country that can design and produce this technology.
    Aselsan, Bilkent and Tübitak are working on Turkish made semi-conductors to be mainly used for national defense and Turkish government has officially started construction of new Chip factories in Istanbul and Ankara.
    Lately one existed:
    Çakıl microprocessor
    10 GB/s data processing speed and a core(under development for multiple cores)
    https://www.webtekno.com/yerli-mikro...il-h60028.html


    Originally posted by Elishar View Post
    I suspect that one of the principle reasons for the Turkey collapse lies in Interest,,if turkey banks and companies borrow according to the infidel money rules they must also return those loans according to the same infidel rules,,but if at home loans are being passed to Turkeys according to koranic rules then who or what is going to pay the shortfall in interest between the external cost of the loan and the local income generated by that loan ?
    The govt has to pay the true rate of the infidel loan but has not itself loaned the money to Turkeys at a sustainable rate...
    Now Turkeys turkeys have come home to roost,koran versus reality...
    Add to this the maniacal delusions of grandeur of Erdogan " the palace"...I think you will find that all the great palaces of Europe were built from money in hand , not borrowed..
    The airport showcase of Europe perfectly suited to the expression luftsgescheften,,,pie in the sky...Did Erdogan think that Dubai would just fold its tents and go back to the desert ? Dubai is an airport designed and built by experts from all over the world and I just don't see Turkey airport taking business from them...
    Turkiye doesn't apply Islamic rules based on bullshits of wahhabis which are UAE and Saudis' themselves, wahhabi Islam is cruel which meant to be out of Islamic ways.

    Leave a comment:


  • Elishar
    replied
    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post


    You're going to be symbolic about FOOL being
    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/minimum-wages
    Turkey Gross Minimum Monthly Wage



    Europe has just begun to bring the TAXES to prevent economical collapse which make western people disturbed of loose of current comfort of life cheapness and luxury.
    This will be usual in all Western countries very soon, YELLOW VEST DOMINO EFFECT:
    Minimum wage..This is probably what attracted EU countries to set up manufacturing plants in turkey,,Turkey was a place of cheap labour…
    When the Turkey govt keeps forcing foreign and domestic companies to Raise that minimum wage they begin to question,,why are we manufacturing in Turkey ?our profit margins are sinking day by day, we could make more money by producing in Armenia or Azerbaijan.so the factories will be moved OUT of Turkey taking the jobs with them..
    I suspect that one of the principle reasons for the Turkey collapse lies in Interest,,if turkey banks and companies borrow according to the infidel money rules they must also return those loans according to the same infidel rules,,but if at home loans are being passed to Turkeys according to koranic rules then who or what is going to pay the shortfall in interest between the external cost of the loan and the local income generated by that loan ?
    The govt has to pay the true rate of the infidel loan but has not itself loaned the money to Turkeys at a sustainable rate...
    Now Turkeys turkeys have come home to roost,koran versus reality...
    Add to this the maniacal delusions of grandeur of Erdogan " the palace"...I think you will find that all the great palaces of Europe were built from money in hand , not borrowed..
    The airport showcase of Europe perfectly suited to the expression luftsgescheften,,,pie in the sky...Did Erdogan think that Dubai would just fold its tents and go back to the desert ? Dubai is an airport designed and built by experts from all over the world and I just don't see Turkey airport taking business from them...

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    I suppose treating EU with opening of the border for "refugees" like they did once. Maybe selling they "table silver" to China, however losing most profitable economic resources ins't a wise long term strategy.

    By the end of it, Erdogan will end up selling his daughters and granddaughters to stay in power....

    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    The inflation was high before
    2,2 TRY for 1 USD end of 2013 ---> 3,8 TRY end of 2017 = 42% / 5 years = 8,4 % annually ( usually is 3% optimal )
    now it moves to hyperinflation.
    Yes, Turkey has just gone over the cliff and people like GayboyWolvon probably think that Allah has given him wings to fly


    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    Good to know.
    Anyways, cash-accounts with ridiculous low interest rates have been for me always just a temporary option.
    Having money in a Spanish bank is one question. Another is how much your pension or other fund has invested in Spanish banks.

    Note also that the German banks have significantly reduced their exposure to Turkey's economy over the last few months....

    Leave a comment:


  • CaymanWolvon
    replied
    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
    They're now very openly talking about Turkey defaulting on their sovereign debt aka Venezuela:




    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1SR1XL

    Now, Turkey's hard cash buffers have just about run out and Erdogan has completely burnt his bridges with the IMF - so no bailout from there. I can't see where Erdogan and his cronies are going to pull 10's of billions of dollars to save Turkey turning into Venezuela at short notice....

    Here's a nice picture showing where the lira is ultimately heading:



    Now, the banking system most exposed to Turkish debt in Europe is Spain's:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/230520...pigs-analysis/

    If I had money in a Spanish bank, I'd be putting it elsewhere...

    You're going to be symbolic about FOOL being
    https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/minimum-wages
    Turkey Gross Minimum Monthly Wage



    Europe has just begun to bring the TAXES to prevent economical collapse which make western people disturbed of loose of current comfort of life cheapness and luxury.
    This will be usual in all Western countries very soon, YELLOW VEST DOMINO EFFECT:

    Leave a comment:


  • Hades91x
    replied
    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
    ...
    Now, Turkey's hard cash buffers have just about run out and Erdogan has completely burnt his bridges with the IMF - so no bailout from there. I can't see where Erdogan and his cronies are going to pull 10's of billions of dollars to save Turkey turning into Venezuela at short notice....
    I suppose treating EU with opening of the border for "refugees" like they did once. Maybe selling they "table silver" to China, however losing most profitable economic resources ins't a wise long term strategy.

    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
    ...
    Here's a nice picture showing where the lira is ultimately heading:

    The inflation was high before
    2,2 TRY for 1 USD end of 2013 ---> 3,8 TRY end of 2017 = 42% / 5 years = 8,4 % annually ( usually is 3% optimal )
    now it moves to hyperinflation.


    Originally posted by aussieinbg View Post
    Now, the banking system most exposed to Turkish debt in Europe is Spain's:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/230520...pigs-analysis/

    If I had money in a Spanish bank, I'd be putting it elsewhere...
    Good to know.
    Anyways, cash-accounts with ridiculous low interest rates have been for me always just a temporary option.

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    They're now very openly talking about Turkey defaulting on their sovereign debt aka Venezuela:

    The $850 billion economy’s potential needs are huge. Were Turkey to descend into a full-blown crisis where it was shut out of international borrowing markets, analysts estimate Ankara would have to find between $40 billion and $90 billion to avoid some kind of sovereign default.
    For many economists, this is a textbook emerging market currency crisis.
    Years of foreign debt accumulation and rising balance of payments gaps meet a sudden evaporation of domestic and investor confidence that sends the currency sliding, inflation soaring and forces central bank interest rates higher to control it.
    The interest rate and currency shocks in turn trigger a deep recession and problems in the banking system as firms and households struggle to pay back their loans — making high interest rates unsustainable and leaving the currency vulnerable to further weakness.
    If foreign investment grinds to a halt and hard cash buffers disappear, Turkey has only limited options without simply building large current account surpluses that may require a much deeper and longer domestic recession.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1SR1XL

    Now, Turkey's hard cash buffers have just about run out and Erdogan has completely burnt his bridges with the IMF - so no bailout from there. I can't see where Erdogan and his cronies are going to pull 10's of billions of dollars to save Turkey turning into Venezuela at short notice....

    Here's a nice picture showing where the lira is ultimately heading:



    Now, the banking system most exposed to Turkish debt in Europe is Spain's:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/230520...pigs-analysis/

    If I had money in a Spanish bank, I'd be putting it elsewhere...

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    Turkish economy is very well with over 0.6% growth
    0.6% growth for a country where the population is growing like Turkey means that people are getting poorer. Given the lies and deception being stated by Turkey's economic institutions, then the real rate of growth is likely negative.

    In any case, that 0.6% figure is highly fudged - you had the inflated bullshit earlier in 2018 added to the massive drop so far of 3% or so with the worst yet to come....

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    despite all economical attacks and secret sanctions which will be prevented in next years by full-performance working of New Istanbul Airport, new Organized Industrial Towns, Aircraft Carrier Building shipyard, domestical productions etc. projects,
    All these economic "assets" aren't making any money at all and got bought with debt which has to be paid back with huge interest because of Turkey's crap credit rating.

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    btw what about yellowvestwarşaiş European, American and Australian extremely debted economies?
    There is a problem with debt in western economies - and politicians are made aware of it by protests. So what happened to the Gezi Park demonstrators?

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    ->100%debth = collapse
    The level of debt is higher than it should be but sustainable unlike Turkey's.
    [QUOTE=CaymanWolvon;n3091720]
    Dollar 7TL = October 2018 U.S stock market crash, loose of 2 trillion$$$ just in a few days, because unlike Turkiye, some countries of which currency aren't much valuable like ASEAN, African, South American countries couldn't buy Apple brand products, as people still could buy apple products in Turkiye, they're no longer preferring it since boicot by [.quote]

    $2 trillion lost on a poor day's trading on Wall Street, and soon after recovered, = over 2 years worth of GDP for Turkey, Learn your place!

    Turkey's Central bank only has about $10 billion left - not enough to cover 3 months of imports for Turkey. That's not even 10% of the personal wealth of Jeff Besos at about $150 billion.

    The only way that Turkey can keep the lira from completely collapsing is for their financial institutes to squander their remaining foreign currency reserves under the dictatorial direction of Erdogan. Yesterday, they squandered $1 billion probably to hold off the collapse of the lira for about 2 or 3 days:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/turk...K?rpc=401&

    Originally posted by CaymanWolvon View Post
    ERDOĞAN THE GREAT

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    You know things are just about to go off the cliff when an ex high-ranked IML official begins to discuss openly the very poor prospects of Turkey's economy not using "nice" language :

    If you ever wanted to learn how to not handle a currency crisis, you should observe the way President Recep Erdogan is mismanaging the Turkish lira. This mishandling substantially heightens the likelihood that Turkey will soon default on its external debt mountain. That in turn could cast a dark cloud over the rest of the emerging market economies’ prospects as well as over those European — especially Spanish — banks with high Turkish debt exposure.
    That Turkey is in the grips of a vicious currency crisis can be in little doubt. Indeed, after Argentina, the country has the dubious distinction of having the world’s second-worst performing currency.
    After plunging by some 30 percent in 2018, the currency has lost a further 14 percent in value in 2019 and is showing no signs of stabilizing.
    At the heart of the swooning Turkish lira has been the loss of domestic and foreign investor confidence in the Turkish government’s ability and willingness to correct the large economic imbalances built up by years of overly easy monetary and fiscal policies.
    In this regard, it has hardly helped investor confidence that inflation has been allowed to rise to 20 percent or to four times the Turkish central banks’ official inflation target. Nor has it helped that President Erdogan has leant heavily on the central bank to refrain from raising interest rates to stem the currency’s slide and to curb inflation.
    The he continues later on:

    Turkey's exceedingly high level of short-term external debt and the fact that its corporate sector has borrowed excessively in U.S. dollars make its crisis that much more dangerous to its economic health.
    It is estimated that over the next year, Turkey has as much $180 billion in external debt service payments to make at a time that its international reserves have already dwindled to around three months of import payment.
    It is also estimated that its corporate sector has borrowed as much as $300 billion in U.S. dollar terms, whose servicing burden becomes all the more onerous as the currency falls and the economy contracts.
    It's regrettable that President Erdogan is showing no sign of urgency in addressing the currency crisis and is in fact adding to political uncertainty by forcing a rerun of the Istanbul local election. This risks having the currency succumb to another round of its vicious cycle.
    A weakening currency could very well lead to corporate bankruptcies that further erode investor confidence that leads to a further currency weakness. That in turn could add to further political instability, which would be yet another factor contributing to currency weakness and to a draining of investor confidence.
    and finally:

    One has to hope that President Erdogan soon recognizes that, once lost, investor confidence is difficult to restore. That might induce him to do something radical like call in the International Monetary Fund for help or fire his minister of Finance to show that he has become serious about breaking the downward economic spiral.
    If he does not do that the rest of the emerging market economies and the Spanish banking system should brace themselves for economic shock waves coming from a Turkish debt default.
    https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...urrency-crisis

    Erdogan is very unlikely to call in the IMF given his previous statements about and his pseudo-intellectual Islamist ideas about economics - a root cause of Turkey's economic problems in any case. He's not going to fire his daughter's husband from the role of finance minister either - not matter how useless he is.

    As for increasing interest rates - one of the first things to do in such a crisis to steady things... he has already excluded doing that and especially with rerunning the Istanbul election he can't politically. The lira today has so far fallen to 6.24 to $1 US. If the lira continues that rate of fall without intervention from the Turkish Central Bank, then expect the lira to be past 8 to $1US soon.

    Now, at what level presently would the $US to lira send Turkey bankrupt? Last year when Turkey was in much better economic shape than it is now, that was 7.2 to 1. I'd expect it to be much lower presently.


    Even the fanboy CaymanWolvon has gone very quiet lately on the thread and no more "economic wonder weapon" posts from him. Wonder why?

    Leave a comment:


  • aussieinbg
    replied
    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    From western perspective is Erdogan the correct leader in Turkey. For regime change it's still too early, Turkish economy has to reach the bottom. It remembers me on the Third Reich, where allies stopped all assassination attempts on Hitler because completely destruction of Nazi-Germany's infrastructure was more beneficial than Germany's capitulation. Days of Hitler were already counted in this moment.
    I'm sure that's also why Russia wants Erdogan in as leader of Turkey - the cost to Turkey of having Erdogan as leader is the equivalent of Russia spending perhaps $100 billion having a war with Turkey.

    Still, this strategy might spiral out of control for Russia if they get into a civil war with each other and strategic nastiness creeps in such as the Bosphorus getting cut occurs.

    Originally posted by Hades91x View Post
    Hence I wish that AKP wins the Istanbul re-election. A dubious "friend" isn't better than an obvious enemy. LOL
    Erdogan is of course going to win the rerun election. They have already been laying the ground for a rerun with police going around asking people "who they voted for" and so on.

    I'm still wondering how much money the central bank there really has left. Once the central bank is bankrupted, what's next?

    At a bare minimum the IMF will demand that Erdogan step down and that the finance ministry is handed over to them in order for them to "assist" Turkey. So far, Turkey has managed to piss off the IMF more than any other country in history with their arrogance - and these people tend to remember such insults.

    More than likely however is that Erdogan will try to cling onto power and send Turkey even further down the shithole with bankruptcy, debt default and beyond. I'm not sure your theories about powerplay would work with Turkey engaged in a fulll-on civil war and not just the one with the Kurds out East.

    Cutting the Bosphorus with a number of sides at each other's throats Sarajevo x 100 style in the middle of a civil war is not a great strategic outcome for the West or for Russia for that matter.

    In the meantime, expect an upsurge in things such as whining about "islamophobia" and the like over the next couple of weeks from Turkey to cover up the fact that their economy is in a shithole and sinking further...

    Leave a comment:

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